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中国公共支出结构对经济增长影响的实证分析:1978-2002
学生姓名:钞小静
指导教师:任保平
院系专业:经济管理学院经济学系经济学基地班

    摘要:
本文应用经济计量方法,对中国1978-2002年的相关数据进行经验分析,得出我国的公共支出对经济增长有正的影响。具体到公共支出的结构而言,经济建设支出和国防支出会对经济增长产生正的效应,而社会文教支出、行政管理支出及其他支出会产生负的效应。通过进一步的数据分析发现由于社会文教支出中的公共卫生支出项目在总量及结构上存在问题使得其对经济增长产生负的影响,从而抵消了科教文的正效应,导致社会文教支出在整体上对经济增长的净效应为负。

    Abstract: This article applies methods of econometrics to experientially analyze the relevant data from 1978 to 2002, and concludes a result that China’s public expenditure has a positive influence to the growth of China’s economy, concretely as far as the structure of the public expenditure is concerned, the expenditures for the Economic Construction and the National Defence have a positive influence to the economic growth, but the expenditures for both the Culture and Education and the Government Administration have a negative and passive domino effect. Through the further data analyzing, it is found that in the expenditures for the item of the Culture and Education, its totality and structure concerning the item of the Public Sanitation has some problems that has leaded to a passive and negative influence to the economic growth, furthermore, under this situation it has counteracted the positive domino effect of the Culture and Education to the economic growth, and has totally made the expenditures for the Culture and Education produce a negative and passive net domino effect.

    关键词:公共支出 公共支出结构 经济增长

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